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| ADB's representatives at the press conference on September 23. (Photo: VNA) |
Hanoi (VNA) – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.8% following stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first half of this year.
Speaking at the release of the Asian Development Outlook September 2026 on September 23, ADB Country Director for Vietnam Shantanu Chakraborty said the economy entered the year with strong momentum and continued to perform well despite greater uncertainty in the global environment.
Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 8.2% in the first half, compared with 7.5% in the same period last year, supported by manufacturing, domestic consumption, foreign direct investment (FDI) and supportive policies.
Bui Minh Giap, ADB's principal economist in Vietnam, said a notable feature of Vietnam's recent economic performance was that growth had not been driven by a single sector but had spread across industry, construction, services, agriculture, consumption, investment and trade.
He highlighted investment and production as two important growth drivers. FDI remained a bright spot, with registered and disbursed capital increasing in the first six, seven and eight months of the year, demonstrating that Vietnam continues to be an important destination in regional production chains.
Meanwhile, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) remained above the 50-point threshold for 14 consecutive months, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector and supporting other areas of the economy.
Reflecting this stronger-than-expected performance, ADB has raised Vietnam’s growth forecast to 7.8% in 2026, from 7.2% in its July update, while raising its 2027 projection from 7.0% to 7.6%.
Inflation forecasts were also revised upwards to 4.3% this year and 4% in 2027 amid sustained demand pressures and higher energy and import costs.
Giap said the revisions showed that stronger growth was also accompanied by greater inflationary pressures. Vietnam's growth outlook had strengthened considerably, but risks remained, he noted.
Externally, weaker global demand and heightened external uncertainty could weigh on exports and investment, while higher energy prices and tighter global financial conditions could add to inflation and exchange-rate pressures, according to ADB.
Domestically, economic activity is increasingly being supported by investment and credit expansion, creating important policy trade-offs. Greater reliance on bank credit to finance large-scale investment could however increase risks of liquidity, maturity, and portfolio concentration if not prudently managed. This underscores the need to ensure that investment strengthens productive capacity, supports sound financial returns, and broadens private sector development.
Against this backdrop, Chakraborty said the key challenge behind the impressive growth figures was how Vietnam can sustain strong growth while improving its quality and resilience of that growth.
He stressed that safeguarding macroeconomic stability should remain a top priority. ADB recommended that Vietnam maintain prudent macroeconomic and financial policies, careful monitoring of credit quality, and continued efforts to contain inflation and exchange-rate pressures.
Public investment should continue to support the economy, with strong attention to efficiency, project readiness, and implementation quality. Well-targeted investment can help ease infrastructure bottlenecks, crowd in private investment, and strengthen the economy’s productive capacity, he said.
Chakraborty concluded that Vietnam's challenge is not only to sustain high growth but also to improve its quality and sustainability. Continued reforms will be key to raising productivity, strengthening domestic capacity and bringing Vietnam closer to its goal of becoming a high-income country./.
